Elon Musk just revealed that when Twitter audits for bot accounts, they only poll 100 accounts at a time. Because of this, Musk is putting the deal to buy Twitter on hold, and subsequently, Twitter is accusing him of breaking a non-disclosure agreement.
Oh, no! Don’t go telling people that the product you plan on buying might be faulty!
When a platform is as huge as Twitter, 100 is a trivially pathetic sample size, especially when sampling for bots, which is a huge problem for Twitter.
But the problem goes beyond just Twitter being annoying for humans to use. The fact is, advertisers pay a premium to advertise on Twitter because of Twitter’s perceived value. For advertisers, to be seen by more human eyes means more value. However, if a huge chunk of Twitter’s value is actually bots, then that’s a huge chunk of Twitter that advertisers would consider absolutely worthless.
When you know this, you see a greater problem. If Twitter is only putting forward a pathetic, statistically insignificant attempt to poll for bots, Twitter may be greatly overstating its own value to advertisers.
It might not be overselling it to say that Elon Musk may have just uncovered the greatest fraud the tech world has ever seen.
In any case, I think we can agree that when a platform’s daily active user count is in the hundreds of millions, a sample size of only 100 is pretty pathetic.
There are a lot of advertisers and investors who are going to be pissed.